A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
